SENATE TAKES ACTION TO SAVE TAX DOLLARS, SPUR HOUSING MARKET AND SET NEW ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS

It has been a very busy couple of months in the Michigan Senate. Since the beginning of the year, we have hit the ground running with our agenda (visit www.senate.michigan.gov/gop) of turning Michigan around with strong public policy and restraint in state spending.

In just this week alone, while the Michigan House of Representatives enjoyed a spring break, Senate Republicans passed the Senate originated budget bills, a homeowner stimulus package and legislation for renewable portfolio standards which will assist our state in decreasing its own dependence on foreign oil.

The 2009 budget process, thus far, has been in stark contrast to last year’s statewide nightmare. The Senate Republicans have moved budget bills far BELOW the Governor’s budget recommendations, SAVING TAXPAYERS $147 MILLION DOLLARS – and we’re just getting started! The Senate originated bills are only half of the overall fiscal year budget. We look forward to finding continued savings on the House originated budget bills in the upcoming weeks.

With the housing market at its lowest level in decades, Senate Republicans were able to pass a homeowner stimulus package for the ailing industry, providing immediate relief. The Senate plan nullifies the “pop-up tax” (where a home’s taxable value increases to its market value when the home is sold) by allowing a homeowner to claim their “pop-up tax” liability against their state income tax liability. For example, a family of four with an income of $70,000 would normally see a state income tax liability of $2,100. With the new legislation, after subtracting their “pop-up tax” credit and their homestead tax credits, their overall tax liability would be virtually eliminated ($2,100 income tax less homestead and pop-up). Also included in the legislation is an increase in the homestead property tax credit from $1,200 to $1,300, an increase in income thresholds by $10,000 – allowing more individuals and families to qualify for the credit and extends principal residence exemptions to unsold homes.

We also moved renewable portfolio standards legislation this week. This legislation asks that the state lead by example in consuming renewable energy, requiring the Department of Management and Budget (DMB) to enter into contracts with electrical energy providers to purchase 3 percent renewable energy by January 1, 2009, 10 percent by 2010, 20 percent by 2020 and 25 percent by 2025. Language was included to ensure the purchase is “economically feasible”, which is defined as no more than 105 percent of the cost of non-renewable energy. The package also includes a $200 tax credit to consumers to offset the cost of utilizing renewable energy and requires utility companies to notify customers of their renewable energy programs and available tax credits. Government should not mandate to consumers and businesses standards it cannot itself abide by.

Although each issue mentioned above is of great importance, it is just a small portion of what we hope to accomplish for the taxpayers of this state in 2008. I look forward to continued savings, efficiencies and progress.

My continuing regards,

Michael D. Bishop
Senate Majority Leader

From the Lansing State Journal:

I don’t care which races are close, which are nasty and which are the most crucial to state House control. Well, OK, I do, but I’ve got to confess that my biggest guilty pleasure this spring/summer will be watching the GOP battle in the 105th.

The race to replace Kevin Elsenheimer, who is giving up a shot at a third term and possible House minority leader job to run for a judgeship has attracted two “name” candidates.

First is John Ramsey, father of the famous JonBenet Ramsey. According to LSJ columnist Tim Skubick, GOP leaders are talking to Ramsey about running for the same seat he ran second in the race for in 2004.

On the other side is Dennis Lennox II, who is most famous for being the guy behind the anti-Gary Peters campaign at Central Michigan University. Lennox is, depending on who you listen to, either a nut with a video camera and too much time on his hands or a crusader for people sick of double-talking political candidates.

So as we sit in Lansing, looking at five (very likely) snoozers of primaries between incumbent state House candidates or their would-be opponents, the political reporters in Charlevoix get Ramsey v. Lennox.

As a political junkie, I’m jealous.

————

Rumor has it that Chuck Yob’s people are pushing for Ramsey to run against Lennox.

Western civilization seems to be deathly ill with a problem that has yet to be diagnosed. Some people suggest that the rise of Islam is the principle problem that faces the Occident in contemporary times. Other people suggest that a secularization of the Western people is the main quandary. Still others suggest that a balkanization of American culture is the primary dilemma. In my opinion the aforementioned problems are only symptoms of the true problem, which is that Westerners lack the willpower to defend their civilization.

Europe has been taken over by political parties and institutions that are tolerant of foreign cultures when they should not be. A people who stone women to death for being sexually assaulted to defend the supposed “honor” of a family, decapitate journalists, execute homosexuals, deny people the right of free speech, deny people the right to participate in any religion they choose, engage in the trade of catamites, murder black Christians in Africa, worship an alleged prophet who had sexual relations with a nine-year-old girl named Aisha, or commit acts of terrorism for the greatness of Allah is a backwards civilization that should not be invited or encouraged to conquer Occidental countries. Europeans fought Islamic invaders at the siege of Vienna in 1683 and successfully put an end to their conquest of Europe. Unfortunately Europeans no longer are fighting the Islamic invaders today; in fact, they are helping them, which was evidenced by NATO’s support of the Albanian Muslims during the Kosovo conflict in the late 1990s. Due to the support of the European community and the United States, a predominantly Islamic country on European soil was allowed to form, in which nuns and churches are attacked without mercy as the Islamic populace purges the newly established country of “Infidels.” Tolerance is a bad thing when evil is tolerated.

A prime example of cultural subversion that anti-Western political parties in Europe perpetrate is the case of what is happening in Brussels, Belgium. The mayor, Freddy Thielemans, is a member of Parti Socialiste (PS), and has done some rather vile things while in office. For example, upon hearing the news that Pope John Paul II had died, he ordered champagne from a waiter in a restaurant to celebrate. His political party also encourages Muslims to immigrate to Belgium so that the Flemish, the indigenous people of Belgium, have to compete with more people at the voting booth. During the Islamic holiday season of Ramadan, by Thielemans’ decree, police officers are no longer allowed to eat food or drink coffee while working in public. When Europeans decided to rally outside the European Union Parliament in Brussels on September 11, 2007 to protest the Islamization of Europe, he banned the protest from occurring and declared that anyone who showed up would be arrested. Some members of Vlaams Belang, a pro-Flemish political party, defiantly protested and were arrested.

Americans are as guilty as Europeans of not defending Western civilization. The United States of America has had enemy troops on its soil only once—during the War of 1812—and that was nearly 200 years ago. In the history of America, the country has only been successfully attacked on two occasions: The date which will live in infamy and on September 11, 2001. Since the country is rarely attacked by foreign peoples, it gives the impression that the American people seem to not be able to grasp the simple concept that there are states and people in the world which desire to destroy Western civilization. Unfortunately who makes it to the next round of American Idol and who is kicked off of Survivor seems to be more important to the American people than the assault on their way of life by savages. The inability to comprehend the fact that the world is full of evildoers causes Westerners to both lower their guard to foreign threats and to remain apathetic about the crisis.

When Westerners do defend their culture, they are branded “racist,” “xenophobic,” or “fascist” by either foreign enemies or domestic traitors. For example, when it comes to the debate involving immigration, La Raza, which translates into English to mean “The Race,” is an ethnocentric organization for Mexicans that quickly labels organizations that are opposed to mass and illegal immigration to the United States as “bigots.” Why is it that foreigners have a right to promote their interests, but Westerners are not allowed to promote their own national interests in their homeland without being called derogatory names?

The multiculturalists are trying to force Westerners to assimilate to ways of life that are foreign in origin. Why should a Westerner tolerate foreign languages being forced upon them? Why should an American have to press one for English or two for any other language when making a phone call? Why should an American not be accepted into college or get a job, because the employer or college administrator is told to create a “diverse” environment. Why should an American have to pay welfare benefits or the bill for a hospital visit of an illegal alien who decided to immigrate unlawfully to the United States? Why should an American have to work all their life and have the government tax their paychecks to pay for the Social Security check of those who immigrate to the United States? The American people are told that they are “racist” if they promote their own interests over those of foreigners. I, for one, do not apologize for putting my own people first. Woe to the people who neglect their own.

Traitors to Western civilization feel that Westerners should apologize to the world for things such as slavery, causing so-called global warming, denying women the right to vote, establishing colonies, fighting the Crusades, not allowing for homosexual “marriage,” and whatnot. I have nothing to apologize for. While my civilization produced Bachs and Mozarts, Einsteins and Pasteurs, Aristotles and Platos, the people of other cultures were sacrificing captives to the “sun god,” shoving bones through their noses, and running through the forests in loincloths with the intent of scalping one another. I do not regret being a Westerner for one minute. The only regret that I have is that so many of my fellow Westerners are ashamed of the civilization to which they belong, which is the same one that cured Polio and Smallpox and put mankind on the moon. If there ever was a Western Civilization Month, like how there is a month for other cultures, there would not be enough time to celebrate all the advances that Western civilization has contributed to the world.

Instead of promoting the interests of foreigners, we should promote only our own interests. Instead of subverting our civilization, we should defend it. Why is this such a difficult concept for so many Westerners to grasp? If the problem is not rectified soon, it will only grow worse and we will cross the point of no return.

Mayor Kilpatrick to get legal defense funding

Kilpatrick’s political, business and other allies form group to raise money to fight criminal charges.

Robert Snell, Christine MacDonald and Darren A. Nichols / The Detroit News

DETROIT — A team of prominent businessmen, power brokers and politicians has formed a legal defense fund to help Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick afford a legal fight against felony perjury charges that could cost millions of dollars.

The Detroit Justice Fund is still forming, but its membership committee includes former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown; Detroit native and television personality Judge Greg Mathis; and S. Martin Taylor, a former DTE executive and a University of Michigan regent, according to Kilpatrick legal team spokesman Christopher Garrett.

The fund, which could be announced today, would be vital for a mayor who is a former schoolteacher and career politician who makes $176,000 a year. That would pay roughly six weeks of full-time work from lead lawyer Dan Webb, a former U.S. attorney who reportedly charges $750 an hour. Its formation also is one of the first visible signs of support among Detroit business leaders, who have said little since the scandal broke in January. more

Southfield Muslim charity executive indicted as spy

Feds: He helped Saddam, paid for trip for Bonior, others

Paul Egan / The Detroit News

DETROIT — A former top official with the Southfield-based Muslim charity Life for Relief and Development spied for the regime of the late Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and organized a 2002 congressional junket to Iraq secretly paid for by the Iraqi Intelligence Service, a federal indictment unsealed Wednesday alleges.

There is no evidence the congressmen knew Iraqi intelligence paid for the trip. The indictment does not identify the congressmen, but records show former U.S. Rep David Bonior, D-Mount Clemens, and two other congressmen made that trip to Iraq. Bonior could not immediately be reached. more

The Word – The Gospel of John
Episode: #04038
Views: 57063
Stephen thinks Obama could learn something from McCain and his new pastor friends.

Copper Rizzo, a 23 yr. old staffer to Senator Majority Leader Mike Bishop has announced that he intends to fill Rep. Garfield’s seat due to term limits.

You can join his Facebook group here

Detroit Reacts to Indictment of Mayor Kilpatrick

News & Notes , March 25, 2008 · Charged with lying under oath in a text message sex scandal, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick turned himself in to authorities, but he maintains he will not resign.

Farai Chideya talks with M.L. Elrick, a reporter for the Detroit Free Press about details in the case.

And for more on what Kilpatrick’s indictment means for Detroit, we hear from Betram Marks, general legal counsel for the Council of Baptist Pastors for Detroit and Vicinity.

MAYOR CHARGED

Kwame Malik Kilpatrick, once heralded as the bright future of the city that reared him, instead became the first sitting Detroit mayor to face criminal charges — eight felony counts, the fallout from a text message scandal.

Worthy: Resignation alone not enough to spare mayor

Wayne County Prosecutor Kym Worthy said Monday that even if Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick resigned, it would not spare him a trial on criminal charges that threaten to send him from the mayoral Manoogian Mansion to a prison cell.

Former Republican State Representative Paul DeWeese has switched parties.

The UMLS Chapter of the ACLU presents:

Larry Flynt

appearing in conjunction with the screening of the new documentary

“Larry Flynt: The Right to Be Left Alone”

by the Ann Arbor Film Festival

Saturday, March 29

2pm-3pm

Room 100HH

And

Call for Dialogue: An Open Discussion

Wednesday, March 26

4pm-5pm

Room 220HH

Questions? Concerns? (We know you have em!)

cocuzza@umich.edu OR apavlov@umich.edu

Special thanks to the Ann Arbor Film Festival

GOLDTHORPE TO DECLARE CANDIDACY FOR 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT SEAT
(aka David vs. Goliath -or- Mrs. Smith Goes To Washington)

Pro bono attorney Linda Goldthorpe of Helmer, in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, is formally announcing her candidacy for the 1st District congressional seat currently held by Bart Stupak. Goldthorpe, the first federal candidate state-wide to file the necessary signatures placing her on the August 5th primary ballot, announces Wednesday, March 26, 2008 at 10:30 am at Petoskey’s historic Perry Hotel.

Goldthorpe doesn’t resemble, nor desire to be your ‘typical politician’. Studying the Constitution at Cooley Law School played a large part in forming her understanding of why it’s so important for Congress to follow the very document that established its marching orders. “As an attorney, I’ve seen that the US Constitution is no longer the highest law of the land—it’s only observed as long as it doesn’t get in the way of what our politicians already decided to do! It’s never been my goal to go to Congress, but it’s obvious that somebody who cares about people has to do it.” A home-schooling mother of two fifth-generation Yooper kids, Goldthorpe’s already logged more than 40,000 miles meeting people in the district.

Washington politicians have demonstrated their unwillingness to put principle above party to solve the problems destroying our nation. Bart Stupak’s eight terms have done nothing to address illegal immigration – we protect other country’s borders while ours are wide open. He says he’s adamantly opposed to the Iraq war, yet continually votes to fund it. He’s for increased funding of more ‘programs’ when in reality, Washington is broke–everything they get comes directly from us, and we’re broke too.

We must enforce current immigration laws and repeal trade policies that undermine America’s economy. We need a strong national defense but must redefine the foreign policy that’s bankrupting our children’s children. We need to be cutting entire departments to address our deficit, not looking for more programs to fund.

“As your representative, I’ll commit to evaluate government actions and legislation in light of their adherence to the principles of the US Constitution, and fight against unnecessary and costly legislation. I’d like to teach many of my new colleagues in Congress a new word–No!”

###

To get more information about Linda Goldthorpe and the Goldthorpe for Congress
Campaign, or to schedule an interview with Linda Goldthorpe, please contact
Bill Kosloskey at (877) WIN-MICH or by emailing bill@goldthorpeforc ongress.com

Mlive.com News article

Globalization poses as a threat to civilization, and in the interests of our people, it needs to be opposed. The ideology of those who promote globalization can be termed globalism, because just like Nazism, communism, socialism, libertinism, and all other utopian “isms” of the 20th century, it is unnatural and is a world-order that conflicts with human nature.

Globalists tend to be contemporary college professors, the students who are indoctrinated by these professors, multinational corporations, and the politicians who pander to the multinational corporations. It is understandable why people in academia are globalists, because after all, they have been removed from reality for so long that utopian theories are able to theoretically work unchallenged in their minds. Students seem to be told in the modern university what to think, rather than taught how to think, by their professors. The ideology of globalism that university professors subscribe to and promote in their classrooms is therefore able to flourish because it is uncontestable.

Multinational corporations promote globalization not because they exist in la-la land and are protected by tenure like the college professors, but because it is in their economic interests to do so. In order to take advantage of cheap labor in Third World countries and to sell the products manufactured there in First World countries without having to deal with what they view as international trade bureaucracy—such as tariffs and quotas—multinational corporations desire to eradicate national borders. Through campaign donations to politicians, these multinational corporations bribe politicians to betray their constituents’ interests.

When national boundaries are done away with, the sovereignty of a nation is lost, which jeopardizes the indigenous culture. The reason why multinational corporations despise economic borders is because they have no country to which they owe more loyalty to than any other country. If capital mobility is unrestricted internationally, a “race to the bottom” will occur, which allows multinational corporations to maximize their profits at the expense of working men and women. In doing so, multinational corporations are putting their interests first, but it is necessary to point out that their interests do not run parallel to the interests of the American people.

Joseph Stiglitz, author of Making Globalization Work, writes that for multinational corporations “economic interests often take precedence over cultural identity” and that “businesses pursue profits, and that means making money is their first priority.” American politicians should think about this before they vote to sacrifice American culture and the prosperity of the American middle class at the Alter of Globalization.

The very idea of the nation is hated by globalists who seek to eradicate national boundaries and cultures. International relations scholar Benedict Anderson once described nations as nothing more than “imagined communities”; however, the idea of the nation is very important to the citizens of a given nation. The importance of the nation is evidenced by the fact that the citizens of a nation are willing to not only kill to defend it, but are willing to sacrifice their own lives for it. I highly doubt that a globalist would sacrifice their own life for their beloved so-called “global community.” The hatred that globalists have for nationalists is derived mostly from their disdain of people who are proud of their history, culture, and country. The fact that the love of one’s country prevents multinational corporations from establishing what Catholic theologian and historian Hilaire Belloc called the “Servile State,” in which people work likes slaves to maximize the profits of big business, is what really irks the globalist.

The globalists conceal the economic treason that is committed by politicians in Washington by ridiculing those who think that sending jobs to China and importing cheap, foreign labor may not be the best way to go about things as “statists,” “isolationists,” and “protectionists.” In my mind, the most accurate word to describe a person who opposes globalization is “patriot.” Only a person who subscribes to the ideology of globalism would dare to suggest that it is good for America when a factory shuts down and relocates to China. Globalization, in this way, is a zero-sum game. The globalist, multinational corporations win and the American people lose.

Globalism poses as a dire threat to the survival of nations, and is not a recent phenomenon, because it arguably was the cause of the demise of the Viking civilization during the early Middle Ages. The people of Scandinavia were isolated from globalization for a very long time, because they were in the region of Europe that is farthest away from where societal advancement occurred in ancient times. For example, Mesopotamia, which is commonly referred to as the “Fertile Crescent,” was where agriculture was developed, and did not reach Scandinavia until 2,500 BC. Also, unlike the rest of Europe, Scandinavia was isolated during the time of the Roman Empire, so it was safe from Roman conquest and imperialism. Globalization reached the Vikings in 600 AD when sailboat technology was introduced to them from the Mediterranean. This caused the rise and demise of the Viking civilization.

The sailboat technology allowed the Vikings to explore uncharted places such as Iceland, Greenland, and even North America. The ability to travel farther than ever before made it possible for the Vikings to trade with foreign peoples. Trading and exploration eventually paved the way for pirating and raiding.

Within a few centuries of acquiring sailboat technology the Vikings became globalists. The Vikings, who had grown tired of having to return home to Scandinavia after raiding prior to the winter months, started to establish settlements on the targeted coasts so that they could begin raiding earlier in the springtime. In these settlements, the Vikings intermarried and became assimilated into the local populations. Eventually the Viking language, religion, and culture disappeared outside of Scandinavia.

Not even 400 years after the sailboat technology reached Scandinavia, the Viking civilization was in rapid decline. The fate of their traditional culture was sentenced to death when King Harold Bluetooth established Christianity as Scandinavia’s official religion. If religion is the basis of culture, as conservative philosopher Russell Kirk believed, then the change in religion ended Viking culture.

What was the reason for the Vikings to embrace globalism? It was arguably the opportunity for wealth to be made through raiding, trading, pirating, and colonizing. They sacrificed their culture on the Alter of Globalization for wealth. Instead of worshipping pagan gods like Odin, Thor, and Frey, they began to worship a false god that multinational corporations still worship today: Profit.

Unfettered capitalism may have more in common with socialism than an advocate of the former would care to admit, for both economic theories are essentially materialist dogmas. Under socialism, big government oppresses the citizenry of a nation. Under unfettered capitalism, big business is the culprit of oppression. Father Charles Coughlin was correct when he told his followers that they should combat both the scourge of communism and the plague of modern capitalism.

German economist Wilhelm Röpke understood this as well, and challenged both communism and unfettered capitalism. To Röpke, socialism was futile, because it is a system that erodes freedom to achieve a morally reprehensible equality of condition. When government takes from one to bestow on another, it diminishes the incentive of the first, the integrity of the second, and the moral autonomy of both. Socialism, collectivism, and communism are nothing more than economic systems which advocate state-sanctioned theft.

Röpke understood the failures of unfettered capitalism as well: The formation of monopolies, the rise of unemployment, the tendency to centralize private and governmental wealth, the eroding of culture by the elimination and degradation of institutions, and a barbaric individualism that naturally ensues. To temper the negative effects of unfettered capitalism, Röpke felt that limited government is sometimes needed to intervene. According to John Zmirak in his biography of Röpke, Wilhelm Röpke: Swiss Localist, Global Economist, Röpke believed that “the economic power of colossal corporations [is] almost as dangerous as the political might of collectivist government” and needs to be dealt with if liberty is to be preserved.

When people are unanchored from a unique culture, religion, family, and other nongovernmental institutions, they turn to the only institution left to fix perceived societal problems—government and mass political movements. When this travesty happens, people no longer know what liberty means, why it is important, or how to defend it. For this reason, Röpke believed that economic freedom can only exist if tradition and religious faith are preserved. Civilization itself is at stake when institutions—both economic and noneconomic—collapse. Viking civilization is a prime example of this tragedy occurring.

If Western civilization and our country are to be preserved for future generations, the ideology of globalism must be confronted by the patriots of our nation. The globalists who wish to deny our people of our culture and our sovereignty and our legacy must be stopped. Enough is enough. It is time the patriots rise, stand up as one, and cry out in one united voice, “Here marches the national resistance!”

MEDIA ALERT

Former PLO Terrorist to Speak at Michigan State University

March 25th, 7:00 PM, 102 Conrad Hall, MSU Campus

Former PLO terrorist, Walid Shoebat, will be speaking at the MSU campus (102 Conrad Hall) on Tuesday, March 25, at 7:00 PM. The media and public are invited to attend. Admission is free.

Shoebat has practiced hatred against both Christians and Jews! He has rioted, bombed and maimed! He recruited college students, while he was a member of a sleeper cell in Chicago. He is now a Christian on a mission of peace.

Shoebat has spent the past four years on speaking tour across America, providing insights into the minds of terrorists. He will share his life story, being raised Muslim and taught to hate from a very early age. Shoebat was only sixteen when he was recruited by the PLO. He will talk about the mind set of radical Islam and point out the dangers that the Western world faces today as Islamic Fundamentalism grows within our borders.

Shoebat is regularly called upon as a news contributor on terrorism, and has appeared on CBS, ABC, NBC, CNN, FOX News Channel, ITN and BBC. He is also the author of two bestselling books “Why I Left Jihad” and “Why We Want To Kill You.” He has spoken at the FBI Academy, Department of Homeland Security, the U.S. Air Force Academy and such prestigious learning institutions as Harvard, Yale, Columbia & Stanford Universities, the University of Michigan, UCLA, and more than 50 other major colleges and state universities.

Walid Shoebat is available for interview. Please contact Rod Mitchell at: 281.350.5506 or mediarod@aol.com

For more information please go to: http://www.shoebat.com/ or email YAF at yaf@msu.edu.

Fransico Franco would know what to do.

Dear Friends,

Please join us in Detroit tomorrow as we welcome Senator Clinton to Michigan! She is coming to say she wants the voices and votes of Michiganders to count at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

When: TOMORROW, March 19, 9:15 a.m. (make sure to arrive early so as not to miss a thing!)
Where: AFSCME Michigan Council 25, 600 W. Lafayette St (corner of 2nd and Lafayette), Detroit

Please come — invite your friends and spread the word on Facebook and MySpace!

Go Hillary!

Thanks,

Granholm Leadership Fund

Who are Michigan House Speaker Andy Dillon’s Thugs?

admin as Uncategorized

Mar|15|2008

Citizens in the 17th Michigan State House District are collecting petition signatures to recall Speaker Andy Dillon from office. ‘Dillon’s thugs’ are the (mostly) anonymous disrupters who use threatening tactics to intimidate citizens who may want to sign the recall petition.

Speaker Andy Dillon lead the legislature to increase the state income tax by 12% and the state business tax by 22%. These tax increases were used to fund an 8% increase in state general fund spending and a 7% hike in the legislators’ budget.

Many citizens of Redford, northern Dearborn Heights, and southeast Livonia believe Dillon’s tax hikes are hurting their families and damaging Michigan’s economy. These citizens believe Speaker Dillon should be held accountable. They have until May 1st to collect 8,724 valid signatures to place the question of recalling Speaker Dillon on the August 5th primary ballot.

more

From MIRS News

A public opinion survey released this afternoon by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) shows that 70 percent of Michigan voters would support a part-time legislature proposal that would also do away with term limits.

Poll Warning: Be on the Lookout for Bad Numbers, Analysis

March 17, 2008
By Stuart Rothenberg,
Roll Call Contributing Writer

This looks like another excellent cycle for Democratic Congressional prospects, as the party benefits from strong fundraising, an impressive crop of recruits and a wind at its back that stems from a damaged GOP brand and voters’ desire for change.

Maybe that’s why two polls stand out like sore thumbs.

The first is a Feb. 9-10 Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates poll for Beth Hafer (D), the daughter of former Pennsylvania state Treasurer Barbara Hafer (D). The younger Hafer is running in Pennsylvania’s 18th district for the right to take on Rep. Tim Murphy (R) in the general election.

The survey showed Hafer at 22 percent of the vote in the primary, with the rest of the field in the low and middle single digits. Her “favorability” stood at 35 percent, while the candidate with the next highest favorables was businessman Steve O’Donnell (11 percent favorable).

I’ve seen plenty of polls like this released on both sides of the aisle, and I almost always think they are meaningless. In the case of Hafer, that’s especially true.

Like the early national presidential polls that showed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) way ahead in the contest for their parties’ presidential nominations, the Hafer poll measures little more than name recognition.

But in this case, the name recognition almost certainly isn’t Beth Hafer’s — it’s her mother’s. Barbara Hafer ran for statewide office (and was elected) a number of times, and Western Pennsylvania voters certainly know her or her name. No wonder someone with the name Hafer was leading a field full of other candidates who had little or no name recognition.

The Hafer campaign (and the polling firm) can argue, of course, that the snapshot nevertheless says something significant about the state of the race: that Beth Hafer starts off with the advantage, and the other candidates need to increase their name recognition just to have a chance of overtaking her. That is undeniably true.

But if any of Hafer’s primary opponents run well-funded, serious campaigns for the nomination, this Hafer poll is almost meaningless. The state of the race will change quickly, making this mid-February poll quickly obsolete.

A far greater problem is a late February/ early March poll in Michigan’s 7th district. Actually, it isn’t the EPIC-MRA poll for the Detroit News and WXYZ-Action News that was the problem as much as it was the story about it that appeared in the News and bears at least some responsibility for a rash of misleading e-mails about the survey.

The newspaper story began with the very reasonable observation that Republican Rep. Tim Walberg could have a tough

re-election race this year. The trouble came in the next paragraph, which noted that Walberg is in a “statistical dead heat when voters are read biographical information about him and challenger Mark Schauer.”

Three paragraphs later, the article quotes an EPIC-MRA pollster saying that he’d have “grave concerns” if he were the Congressman that an “unknown Democrat … could match up so competitively.” The statement is particularly odd because one of the reasons Democratic insiders are excited about Schauer’s bid is that they note he already represents one-third of the Congressional district in the state Senate and is popular among those voters.

Two paragraphs after that, the article notes that when “voters had no other information than the two candidates’ names and party,” Walberg held a 51 percent to 40 percent lead.

In other words, in the initial ballot test, Walberg was over 50 percent and held a double-digit lead. This is the ballot test that really matters, and it is always reported as how the race stands.

So-called second ballots, which involve a retest of the candidates after additional information is provided to respondents, are much poorer measures of candidate strength and much less reliable predictors of the future. That’s because they introduce information into the survey that voters don’t necessarily have — and may never have.

Yet the Detroit News story led with the second ballot, creating a misimpression about the state of the race, at least as the poll found it exists today.

Interestingly, the Schauer campaign sent out a news release crowing “Schauer Leads Walberg in New Independent Poll,” even though that is demonstrably untrue. Walberg held an 11-point lead in the survey. I’d hope the folks at the Schauer campaign know the difference between a first ballot and a second ballot.

One of Schauer’s consultants distributed the article by way of an e-mail titled “Detroit News poll shows Schauer, Walberg in dead heat.” Sorry, but the race isn’t a “dead heat,” and anyone in the business should know that. All that anyone can say about the second ballot is that if and when voters get more information on the two candidates, they may find the Democrat appealing.

Actually, Walberg’s numbers in the race are far from terrible, given the problems the GOP is facing these days and given the numbers that some other Republicans are getting. He isn’t safe, of course. Not by a long shot. This is definitely a competitive race.

The bottom line here is that nobody involved in the story looks good. The Detroit News article did a terrible job of presenting the numbers and drawing implications from the survey. The EPIC-MRA pollster, assuming he was quoted correctly, failed to put the poll into context. And the Schauer campaign intentionally misled observers.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/53_109/rothenberg/22604-1.html?type=pf

Stuart Rothenberg is editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report, a non-partisan political newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics and political developments. His column runs twice-a-week in Roll Call, one of Capitol Hill’s top political news sources.

Paid for and authorized by Walberg for Congress